Conflict on ice

DURING the late 1980s and early 1990s the conflict between Armenians and Azeris over the Nagorno-Karabkh region was often in the news. Thousands died in fighting; hundreds of thousands fled, or were ethnically cleansed. Nagorno-Karabakh is an Armenian-majority region inside Azerbaijan. During Soviet times it enjoyed autonomy. In September 1991 it declared independence, triggering war. The region doubled in size, but the problem was not resolved.

Twenty years later, Nagorno-Karabakh is often called a frozen conflict. For most people outside the Caucasus, it is more of a forgotten one.

No Azeris remain in Nagorno-Karabakh. Towns like Aghdam, which were Azeri-dominated before the war but that lie outside the old autonomous region, are in ruins. But there has been some reconstruction in in areas within the pre-war borders. Equally importantly, Nagorno-Karabakhs 140,000 Armenians have built a small but functioning state. (Not even Armenia, on which the statelet depends, formally recognises its independence.)

Peace talks have ground on for years, but a breakthrough is never made. Nagorno-Karabakh's Armenians want recognition for their breakaway state, but Azerbaijan is unwilling to grant anything more than autonomy. Azeri refugees also want to return to their homes.

The conflict impedes economic development and regional co-operation in the south Caucasus. But Westerners forget it at their peril. In 2005 the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline opened to pump Azerbaijani oil to a terminal in Turkey to lessen dependence on piplines through Russia. The pipeline runs close to the line where Nagorno-Karabakhs soldiers confront those of Azerbaijan. In the event of a new conflict it could be cut by rocket ! fire wit hin hours.